JPMorgan’s first long-term bitcoin forecast sees 10% a year, ahead of stocks and gold, but calls it speculative

Summary

JPMorgan’s 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report projects a base-case annualized return of 10% for bitcoin over the next 10 years, above its forecasts of 7.5% for U.S. large-cap stocks and 5.5% for gold, according to CoinDesk and Cointelegraph.

CoinDesk said it is the first time the bank has put a range on bitcoin returns in its research, and Cointelegraph said it is the first time bitcoin has been included in the long-term outlook, which covers more than 200 assets.

The bank stayed cautious: the report said it does not make a case for bitcoin as a portfolio diversifier because of its unstable correlations, and views it as “a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing,” both outlets reported.

The outlets’ figures for the outer scenarios differ: CoinDesk reported a bull case of 17% a year and a bear case of a 9.7% annual loss, while Cointelegraph reported 16.6% and an 11.2% annual loss.

Updates

• Update, Tue, 20 Oct 2026 19:13:29 UTC: Oct. 20: The Block said the forecast comes from J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s 31st annual Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, which puts bitcoin’s volatility at 55% and adds a separate, smaller covariance matrix for bitcoin against a subset of assets; Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan argued the 55% volatility estimate is too high. Bitcoin Magazine also reported the forecast, stressing the bank still does not recommend bitcoin.
• Update, Tue, 20 Oct 2026 22:02:15 UTC: Oct. 20: Decrypt reported the 10% figure is a compound annual return over 10 to 15 years, against 7.5% for U.S. large-cap stocks, 5.5% for gold and 7% for a 60/40 portfolio, and that bitcoin’s simple arithmetic average return in the report is 20.9% because of its 55% volatility.

Key facts

• CoinDesk said the 10% base case compares with projected returns of 5.6%-6.6% for U.S. bonds, 7.5% for U.S. large-cap equities, 7.7% for small caps and 5.5% for gold. (CoinDesk)
• CoinDesk quoted portfolio manager Sheena Shah and head of digital asset strategy Dennis Cristallo as saying bitcoin “lacks a strategic role in portfolios other than as a bet on fiat currency expansion or future asset trading on blockchains.” (CoinDesk)
• The report said bitcoin’s “volatility and unstable correlation to other asset classes…remain an obstacle to [its] widespread inclusion in portfolios,” CoinDesk reported. (CoinDesk)
• Cointelegraph said the bank’s calculations considered bitcoin’s supply growth relative to money supply, its potential role alongside gold and network adoption. (Cointelegraph)
• Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan welcomed bitcoin’s inclusion on X; Cointelegraph noted Bitwise’s own, more bullish August 2025 forecast of a 28.3% base-case annual return. (Cointelegraph)
• Cointelegraph said JPMorgan published the report on Monday; CoinDesk described it as Tuesday’s report. (Cointelegraph)
• The analysts said they could revise their approach as bitcoin’s volatility declines and its correlations stabilize, particularly as regulation becomes clearer and liquidity and price discovery improve, The Block reported. (The Block)
• JPMorgan called the idea that currency debasement will spark a rush into crypto “wide of the mark,” Decrypt reported. (Decrypt)

Related stories

• Bitcoin drops below $72,000 as spot ETFs bleed $1.44 billion in five days and BlackRock's IBIT loses $2 billion in nine
• Bitcoin treasury firm Nakamoto owes Kraken $165 million, more than its market value, as Q3 operating revenue turns negative
• Binance sets aside $6.34 billion to cover record hack as TRM and Chainalysis tie it to North Korea's TraderTraitor